Xapo CEO Wences Casares, who is also a PayPal director, has made a dramatic statement in an article published last month on Kana and Katana in which he wrote bitcoin may be worth more than $1 million in 7 to 10 years.
He wrote: “In my (subjective) opinion those chances of succeeding are at least 50%. If Bitcoin does succeed, 1 Bitcoin may be worth more than $1 million in 7 to 10 years. That is 250 times what it is worth today (at the time of writing the price of Bitcoin is ~ $4,000).”
According to Casares, while he cautions that investing in bitcoin has a risk and that no person should exceed what they can truly afford, it would also be “almost as irresponsible to not have any exposure to BTC at all.”
There is a strong argument to say that bitcoin has already succeeded, because it has been operaying for 10 years. Casares also said that bitcoin should not be seen as a replacement for fiat currencies, but as an alternative that operates alongside them. “If Bitcoin succeeds it will most likely not replace any national currency. It may be a supranational currency that exists on top of all national currencies. If Bitcoin succeeds it may be a global non-political standard of value and settlement.”
Casraes also made a number of investment recommendations, including to those with portfolios at the $10 million mark: “I suggest that a $10 million portfolio should invest at most $100,000 in Bitcoin (up to 1% but not more as the risk of losing this investment is high). If Bitcoin fails, this portfolio will lose at most $100,000 or 1% of its value over 3 to 5 years, which most portfolios can bear. But if Bitcoin succeeds, in 7 to 10 years those $100,000 may be worth more than $25 million, more than twice the value of the entire initial portfolio.”
And he pointed to the fact that in the Philippines where 1 in 10 people use bitcoin for transactions due to the country’s inefficient and expensive financial services, plus the 60 million holders moving over $1 billion per day globally using bitcoin, are clear signs that bitcoin is succeeding.
How did he arrive at the $1 million valuation? He reasoned, “I have noticed over time that the price of Bitcoin fluctuates around ~ $7,000 x how many people own bitcoins. So if that constant maintains and if 3 billion people ever own Bitcoin it would be worth ~ $21 trillion (~ $7,000 x 3 billion) or $1 million per Bitcoin.”