Willy Woo, a longstanding crypto analyst, is claiming that there is a 95% probability that the worst is over for BTC and that the odds are in favour of a bull market.
Woo made his claim during an online debate with Tone Vays, a derivatives trader, as the pair discussed if BTC had finally reached its bottom. As CCN says, the two come from quite different positions on Bitcoin. Woo is a technical analysts who works with charts and data, and as far as he is concerned, the numbers don’t lie. He believes Bitcoin “bottomed out at $3,100 at year-end 2018 and unless hell freezes over, it won’t hunt new lows.”
He said, “I’m swimming in data and you kind of get an intuition about things. I’d say a one-in-20 to one-in-40 chance that this floor falls through. So that’s 95%-97.5% that the bottom is in. I’d consider if we drop below $4,300, they [bears] would be very lucky.”
Woo’s viewpoint is supported by the likes of Adamant Capital’s Tuur Demeester, who attaches an 80% probability that the bottom is in. Meanwhile Tone Vays is much more cautious and says there is only a 40% chance that BTC has bottomed.
But Woo doesn’t just depend on data, he also looks at adoption: “[We’re] seeing a doubling in user base every year very consistently over 10 years…So what we see is this mapping of the world coming in and in this case the world coming in with capital that’s injecting into bitcoin.”
Both he and Vays also look to the Nasdaq and lessons from the dotcom era with regard to Bitcoin’s future. Woo commented: “The Nasdaq was essentially the adoption curve of the internet. And bitcoin’s actually the adoption curve of the internet digital scarcity, the digital version of gold. As we move into this digital age, as we move into all these things we see in the physical world being eaten by software, we’re seeing also the need for digital scarcity and a monetary instrument that is natively digital and transacted on the internet. And so in that regard, I think it’s even more important than the internet.”